Mid-week market update: After this week's brutal sell-offs, the stock market is oversold enough for a bounce. The VIX Index has risen above its upper Bollinger Band, which is an oversold market condition and short-term buy signal. If the market action in the past year is any guide, the potential for the S&P...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In the past week, several readers have asked whether it's too late to be buying financials, value, and other cyclical stocks. In reply, I highlighted the recent Mark Hulbert column, "Value stocks now are beating growth by 10 points, but the easy money might be behind us", namely that the value/growth reversal may not necessarily have...
Mid-week market update: In my update last weekend (see Waiting for the sell signal), I observed that the S&P 500 was oversold and due for a relief rally. The market cooperated by printing a hammer candle on Monday, which is a capitulative reversal indicator, and confirmed the reversal with a bullish follow through on Tuesday...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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