Mid-week market update: Stock prices have taken a minor and uneven risk-off tone this week. The pullback has been attributable to fears over a Delta variant-related slowdown. I beg to differ. Instead, the weakness can be better explained by market technical conditions. The 5-day correlation between the S&P 500 and VVIX, or the volatility...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
One of my principal tools of market analysis is the use of trend-following techniques to spot changes in macro conditions. My models are seeing some early green shoots in the value and reflation trade. It began with the stronger than expected July Jobs Report. The subsequent tame core CPI print also helped to reinforce the...
Mid-week market update: I have been relatively constructive on the stock market in recent weeks, but I am going to do something different this time. Aside from the obvious negative RSI divergences to the rising S&P 500, what are the downside risks to this bull? There are many to consider. Technical...
Gold prices crashed overnight when a flood of sell orders hit the illiquid Asian markets. Prices fell below the 1700 mark but recovered. This has the smell of a margin clerk liquidation, which is often the sign of capitulation. Is this an opportunity to buy gold? The top-down view The sudden...
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