Mid-week market update: We are entering the time of year when investors and traders position themselves for the end of the year. These conditions have made it more challenging for anyone trying to trade based on conventional technical analysis. The most obvious is tax loss selling, when investors harvest losses to offset their (likely)...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Jeffrey Hirsch of Almanac Trader recently indicated that the first part of December sees a period of seasonal weakness, followed by small cap leadership into year-end. I regard seasonality as informing me about the climate, while the weather can vary day-to-day. Here is my assessment of the weather ahead. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
This is the season when investment strategists publish their outlooks and forecasts for the coming year. This year, the message from investment banks is mostly the same: “We are bullish for stocks in 2025, but there are these policy risks of the new Trump Administration.” This time last year, I expected returns of about...
Mid-week market update: It is said that there is nothing more bullish than a stock or a market making a new high. The S&P 500 made a marginal all-time high yesterday and pulled back today. Yesterday’s high was more convincing as both the Dow and equal-weighted S&P 500 decisively broke out to all-time highs. This...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The decline in the S&P 500 seems to have been arrested at its 20 dma (blue line). The next question is which price gap gets filled first. A fill of the upside gap (in grey) would be positive for the bull case, while a fill of the downside gap (in pink) would...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
U.S. equity prices rose strongly in the wake of Trump’s victory. As the accompanying shows, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 surged on a relative basis, while other regions tanked. Donald Trump promised to Make America Great Again. While he may have accomplished that task in the short run for U.S. stocks,...
Mid-week market update: The latest BoA Global Manager Survey shows that institutions have stampeded into U.S. equities in the wake of Trump's victory. The apparent crowded long position is concerning from a contrarian viewpoint. I had suggested on the weekend that it was time for the S&P 500 to pause and take a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I pointed out on the weekend (see A final update on the Trump Trade: Tail-risk assessment) that the term structure of the VIX had inverted, indicating high levels of market anxiety. The market was hedging for a catastrophic outcome that turned out to be nothing. Today's post-election rally is mainly attributable to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Publication notice: I will be starting a two-week holiday this weekend, and here is my planned publication schedule. Weekend publications will be condensed from two publications to one. Barring significant market volatility, there will be no mid-week market update. Regular service will resume after the U.S. election. Mid-week market update: We are in the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Further to my last post (see A buy signal setup), the 14-day RSI of the S&P 500 Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) flashed a buy signal when it recycled from oversold to neutral. By the book, this is a legitimate buy signal. Under the current circumstances, I have some...
Is the U.S. progress on inflation a case of two steps forward, one step back? Even before the stronger-than-expected September CPI report, bond prices were declining in the wake of the Fed’s jumbo half-point rate cut decision. The Treasury market is exhibiting signs of anxiety from a technical analyst’s perspective. The 7–10-year Treasury ETF...
Mid-week market update: Ryan Detrick has been correctly bullish during the rally from late 2023. He recently pointed out that it may be time for the stock market to take a breather, "October higher only once out of six times it was up 30% or more going into Q4 and Q4 below avg returns as...
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