Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I have said before that the stock market is extended in its advance and it could pull back at any time. How extended? Here is another metric. Bollinger Bands (BB) are overbought/oversold indicators. If a stock or index rises above its 2 standard deviation BB. it is said to be overbought....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Signs of technical deteriorations had been appearing last week, but NVIDIA’s earnings report saved the day. The earnings report can best be described as a blowout. The results beat Street expectations on all metrics and the company guided upwards. There wasn’t anything not to dislike about the report. As a consequence, the Semiconductor Index, which...
Mid-week market update: The hot CPI print on Tuesday spark a massive risk-off episode. The S&P 500 staged a partial recovery today. The key question is, "Is this just a hiccup in the bull run, or the start of a correction?" The stock market has been ripe for a correction for some time. The...
Mid-week market update: I am sure everyone has seen the breadth divergences. Even as the S&P 500 rises to all-time highs, different versions of the Advance-Decline Line are struggling. Breadth deterioration is evident the further down you go in market capitalization. The breadth divergence can also be observed in falling correlations between stocks...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has been riding its upper Bollinger Band. Historically, upper BB rides haven't been all that bearish, but the current episode is occurring against a backdrop of negative RSI divergences. While the S&P 500 may be on an upper BB ride, it promises to be a roller coaster....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: There is a time for an aggressive posture in positioning and there is a time for patience. This is a time for investors to be patient. In the aftermath of the rally off the October bottom, the S&P 500 is consolidating its gains after breaking out through resistance at 4600 to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Another day, another sideways consolidation price action in the S&P 500, which is typical of seasonal pattern in the first half of December. Beneath the surface, I am seeing numerous signs that the market is still poised for the year-end rally. Supportive sentiment First of all, sentiment models...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Until yesterday’s market melt-up, it seemed that individual investors were fighting the rally, which is a contrarian bullish sign. I noticed it on the weekend when the level of engagement on my bearish tweets were an order of magnitude higher than my bullish ones. In addition, the New York Fed’s recent consumer...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I told you so. As I recently pointed out, psychology had become too stressed to the downside, which opened the door to a relief rally. The NAAIM Exposure Index, which measures the sentiment of RIAs who manage individual investors’ funds, fell sharply last week and below its 26-week Bollinger Band. Historically, theses...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: There was a lot of angst last week about how Treasury market, whose yields had been rising steadily, was the main driver of risk appetite. When I saw this cartoon circulating, I thought that it marked the top in yields as a contrarian indicator. Indeed, the bond market rallied when Bill Ackman...
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