Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Technical analysts often use the magazine cover indicator as a contrarian indicator. When an idea has become so commonplace that it becomes the cover of a major magazine, the public is all-in and it's time to sell. The Economist reported on an ad hoc study by Greg Marks and Brent Donnelly at Citigroup using covers...
China has been undergoing a series of stop-start growth spurts mini-cycles, courtesy of credit driven stimulus programs (chart via RBS): The size of the latest Q1 financing induced boom was extraordinary, as it hinted at panic by the authorities. For some perspective, credit expansion in Q1 2016 was somewhere between the GDP of...
I have tried to refrain from comment on the Brexit referendum vote until the situation had settled down a bit. Now that the campaign is in full swing, it`s time to consider how the markets might react as we approach the June 23 vote. CNBC recently summarized the debate this way: First, the economy, and...
