I highlighted a widening gulf between the technical and macro outlook in August (see "Price leads fundamentals", or "Don't fight the Fed"?). At the time, the technical indicators were wildly bullish because of strong price momentum, while the macro outlook was cautious. The macro view eventually won out. A similar divide may be appearing...
Mid-week market update: I thought that I would publish an early mid-week market update in light of the shortened US Thanksgiving trading week. As the S&P 500 consolidates in a narrow range between 3900 and 4000, things are breaking beneath the surface. Let's begin the analysis at the extreme risk part of the market....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The performance of balanced funds has become especially challenging in 2022. In most recessionary equity bear markets, falling stock prices were offset by rising bond prices or falling bond yields. The fixed income component of a balanced fund portfolio has usually acted as a counterweight to equities. Not so in 2022. You would...
Mid-week market update: The stock market surged last week in reaction to the soft CPI reading. It got better news this week when PPI came in lower than expected. As well, China unveiled a 16-point package to try and stabilize its cratering property market and softened some of its Zero COVID policies. Berkshire Hathaway unveiled...
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