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The good news and bad news
Mid-week market update: Subscribers received an email alert last Friday that I had issued a tactical sell signal for the stock market. The VIX Index had fallen below its lower Bollinger Band, which is often a signal of a short-term top. Since then, the index has been trading sideways while the 5-day RSI slowly descended...
Why the Saudi output cut could be a bullish catalyst for energy stocks
The Saudis made a surprise unilateral cut of 1 mbpd at the OPEC+ meeting on the weekend. The NY Times reported that the Kingdom was forced to make the move as a matter of fiscal necessity: Saudi Arabia is in “whatever it takes mode,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Global Markets,...
Global market review: Risks and opportunities
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
A different kind of Fed pivot?
Now that the debt ceiling drama is over, investors’ eyes are turning toward the Fed and the trajectory of monetary policy. The current Fed tightening cycle is one of the most aggressive in memory. After a series of staccato rate hikes, the Fed hinted that it was ready to pause. However, the recent stronger-than-expected April...