The main events in the coming week will be the interest rate decisions by Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday. Both are widely expected to raise rates. However, market expectations for the trajectory of the U.S. Fed Funds rate is a 25-basis-point hike at the May meeting, a pause, and rate cuts...
Mid-week market update: Subscribers received an alert on Monday that my trading model had turned bearish. Despite the positive reaction to the Microsoft earnings report, which is holding up the NASDAQ today, there are plenty of signs beneath the surface that the stock market is weakening. The failure of the S&P 500 to hold...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As the S&P 500 stalls at overhead resistance while exhibiting negative divergences, here are some reasons why you shouldn’t be overly bullish or bearish on U.S. equities. The Bear Case The bear case for stocks is based mainly on macro and fundamental conditions. A recession is on the horizon in H2 2023,...
Mid-week market update: I am publishing this note slightly early today as I have an appointment just after the market close and the prices on the charts will not be today's closing prices. As the S&P 500 struggles with overhead resistance, I would like to offer some words of warning for equity bulls. The VIX...
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