The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium is intended for participants to discuss the challenges they face and the long-term implications of different ways of thinking about monetary policy. Much like the ASSA conference held every January or the annual ECB conference in Sintra, it’s full of academics giving papers with Greek letters lying on their...
Mid-week market update: I was a little hesitant about jumping to instant conclusions about the upside breakout of several market indices in reaction to Chair Powell's speech on Friday, and I wanted to wait for signs of confirmation. We have it now. The Dow and the equal-weighted S&P 500 staged upside breakouts, and they are holding...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The purpose of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium isn’t to make decisions about the short-term direction of monetary policy, but to consider the long run implications of policy. It is in that spirit that I consider the short- and long-run implications of Trump’s America First policies. The primary purpose of Trump’s policy initiatives...
Mid-week market update: Is the much anticipated market pullback starting? The U.S. equity market recently saw a violent rotation from growth to value, led by downdrafts in market darlings like NVIDIA and Palantir. Notwithstanding the change in leadership, I have been monitoring the evolution of the VVIX, or the volatility of the VIX, which spiked...
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