As I pointed out yesterday (see Brexit: LTCM or Lehman?), my Trifecta Bottom Spotting Model, which has shown an uncanny record of spotting short-term market bottoms. This model flashed an "exacta" buy signal as of Friday's close and it has now flashed a "trifecta" signal based on Monday's close. The model is based on the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Well, my Bremain call didn't go so well (see Positioning for a Bremain result). As I write this, the BBC has called the referendum in favor of Leave by a margin of 52-48. GBPUSD is down about 10% and Asian stock markets are down 2-4%. If you were correctly positioned for this outcome, congratulations, but...
Mid-week market update: Even though the polls show the two sides running neck and neck, my inner trader is positioning for a Remain result in the UK referendum for the following reasons. Polling internals indicate momentum towards Remain; Bookmaker odds overwhelmingly favor Remain over Leave; and Market anxiety is rising - so a "buy the rumor,...
For my (mainly) American friends, file this under "why you don't understand Europe": The Vietnam War was a war that scarred the national psyche and dramatically changed the tone of American foreign policy for a generation. If you visit the Vietnam Memorial in Washington DC today, you will find roughly 58,000 names of fallen soldiers...
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