Mid-week technical update: I wrote on the weekend that I expect that the stock market would continue to rise on an intermediate term basis, but some short-term weakness was likely (see A repeat of the failed Oct/Nov rally of 2015?). What I did not expect was to see a short-term buy signal after the brief...
China's latest five-year plan seems to be a big hit. What's more, the most recent growth slowdown is abating, the stock market is recovering, but my indicators are suggesting that, despite all of the glowing rhetoric, the economy is taking a step back in its path towards re-balancing growth towards the household sector. Five-year plan...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Mid-week update: I thought that I would write my mid-week update a day early, because of the binary outcome of the FOMC meeting. This meeting could turn out to be a critical turning point for the short and medium term tone of the markets. It`s becoming fairly clear that the Fed is unlikely to raise...
I normally confine my comments to top-down analysis and I normally don`t make my personal opinions on legal and political issues like the current case of Apple vs. the FBI, but a comment by John Oliver makes many of the issues much less black and white (via Barry Ritholz). I know that Apple (AAPL) has...
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