Mid-week market update: Let me make myself absolutely clear, I remain intermediate term bullish on US equities based on the points I made in past remarks (see Equities in a macro sweet spot and The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and sentiment too)). As the SPX struggles with a technical resistance level at about 2080,...
A reader raised a question after my generally bullish weekend post (see Equities in a macro sweet spot). The latest report from Barron's of insider activity had shown that readings had risen up into sell signal territory. How worried should investors be about this development? Insiders tend not to be short-term traders and...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
After I wrote my last post about the GAAP gap, which addressed many of the concerns about shortfalls in earnings quality (see The GAAP gap as Rorschbach test), I had a number of discussions about the vulnerability of the stock market to buyback activity. I had been meaning to write more on this topic, but...
Mid-week technical update: In my weekend market commentary, I wrote that I was intermediate term bullish on equities (see The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and sentiment too)). However, my inner trader was tactically watching the relative performance of the cyclical sectors for signs of market weakness. Now that cyclical stocks have weakened and,...
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