FOMC preview, part II

Further to my last post (see Watch the reaction, not just the Fed), I got a number of questions that asked if there are any factors or nuances from the FOMC statement or subsequent press conference to watch for. Firstly, I reiterate my point that the reaction to the Fed is far more important to...

Watch the reaction, not just the Fed

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A tale of two markets

Mid-week market update: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Stock prices continue to surge ahead, while the bond market *ahem* is having its difficulties. The Dow Jones Industrials Average made another record high, followed by the Transportation Average. The combination of the dual all-time highs constitutes a Dow Theory...

Do you have what it takes to succeed in finance? (Dani Rodrik trilemma edition)

Dani Rodrik of the Harvard Kennedy School has outlined a trilemma of the global economy.     The Economist explained the trilemma this way: Dani Rodrik of Harvard University is the author of the best-known such critique. In the late 1990s he pointed out that deeper economic integration required harmonisation of laws and regulations across...

Trump makes stocks great again (for now)

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...