Ed Yardeni recently highlighted the surge in small business confidence, earnings and employment plans as part of a scenario of what could go right. Beneath the surface, there were a number of contradictions that were evocative of official Chinese economic statistics. A confidence bifurcation The first problem is how consumer and business confidence is...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
There has been a lot of excitement over a possible breakthrough on NAFTA based on a handshake agreement between the United States and Mexico. The White House has also positioned the deal as a take-it-or-leave-it offer to Canada to join the agreement by Friday, which has also raised the anticipation level on the prospect that...
Mid-week market update: As the market broke out through the round number 2900 level, I am indebted to Urban Carmel and others for pointing out that the index is testing a key uptrend line. There are a number of common elements of the current market conditions to past tests of the uptrend: By...
I am late on this analysis, but I spent some time on the weekend reading, and re-reading Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Contrary to the market's interpretation, I concluded that his speech was not as dovish as the market thinks. There is much at stake for equity investors. The stock market is already risen to its...
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