How I learned to stop worrying and love rising rates

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

The bulls are back in town

Mid-week market update: In my last mid-week market update (see Still choppy, still consolidating), I highlighted the weekly (unscientific) sentiment survey conducted by Callum Thomas. The poll showed fundamentally oriented investors to be very bullish, while technical survey was bearish. I suggested at the time that one of the signs that the sideways consolidation may...

Why you shouldn’t get wedded to any market indicator

Over the years, I have had a number of discussions with traders who have religiously embraced specific trading systems and investment disciplines. This is a cautionary tale of how systems fail. Charlie Bilello won the NAAIM Wagner Award for his work on the lumber/gold ratio: Lumber’s sensitivity to housing, a key source of domestic economic...

Why I am not ready to call a market top

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...