Mid-week market update: It is said that the adage "hindsight is 2020" may have been a garbled warning from a future time traveler. This year is certainly turning up like that. The S&P 500 fell -20% in Q1 2020, and recovered 20% in Q2. It's been that kind of year. Tactically, the index is backtesting...
As Q2 earnings season is about to begin, it would be useful to assess the level of expectations going into reporting season, and the risks ahead. According to FactSet, forward 12-month EPS estimates have been bottoming and begun to turn up after a massive downdraft. On the surface, this appears to be a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Some analysis has recently emerged pointing to a bleak decade for equities, and US equities in particular. Mark Hulbert highlighted a model outlined in the Philosophical Economics blog, entitled "the single greatest predictor of future stock market returns". The model is based on US household allocation to equities and uses the levels as a contrarian...
Mid-week market update: I have some good news, and bad news about a second wave. The bad news is new case counts are rising dramatically in the US. The good news is fatalities are not rising. Here is some more bad news. Marketwatch reported that Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of infectious diseases at the...
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