Mid-week market update: The market has taken on a risk-on tone as news of a promising Moderna vaccine trial hit the tape. While the relative performance of healthcare stocks haven't done much for several weeks, they did catch a recent bid. As well, cyclical stocks have also perked up as they responded to...
As Elon Musk passes Warren Buffett in net worth, it is time to sound one more warning about the market's valuation. FactSet reported that the stock market is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 22.0, which is well above its 5 and 10 year averages. Here is why these circumstances are highly...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
When a stock market shifts from a bull to a bear market, leadership usually changes. Bear markets are often periods of catharsis. The old leaders get tired, and they have been bid up to excessive valuations. A reality check sets in and they fall. As the old leaders fail, new market leaders emerge to guide...
Mid-week market update: To paraphrase Emperor Hirohito when he broadcast the Japan's decision to surrender in World War II to the nation, "My inner trader's returns have not necessarily developed to his advantage in 2020". While the trading system was correct in spotting the major downdraft this year and the initial recovery, it was wrong to...
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