Time is running out for the bulls

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Is the S&P 500 wildly overvalued?

Several readers asked me to address the valuation warning from Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader, who found that the S&P 500 is wildly overvalued based on a combination of real earnings yield and dividend yield.     Let's begin by unpacking Goepfert's chart (annotations are mine). There were five instances since 1970 when the market appeared...

Don’t short a dull market

Mid-week market update: Even as the S&P 500 remains range-bound, market internals are constructive. I interpret these conditions to mean that the market can grind higher in the short-term, and the intermediate-term trend is still up.     Don't short a dull market.     A risk appetite revival A survey of risk appetite indicators...

The wall at S&P 4200

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

What a bond market rally could mean for your investments

The trader Alex Barrow recently observed that the sentiment backdrop is setting up for a bond market rally.     While Barron's is not as reliable as The Economist as a contrarian magazine cover indicator, the stars appear to be lining up for a counter-trend rally in bond prices. Here is what a potential bond...