Several readers asked me to address the valuation warning from Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader, who found that the S&P 500 is wildly overvalued based on a combination of real earnings yield and dividend yield. Let's begin by unpacking Goepfert's chart (annotations are mine). There were five instances since 1970 when the market appeared...
Mid-week market update: Even as the S&P 500 remains range-bound, market internals are constructive. I interpret these conditions to mean that the market can grind higher in the short-term, and the intermediate-term trend is still up. Don't short a dull market. A risk appetite revival A survey of risk appetite indicators...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The trader Alex Barrow recently observed that the sentiment backdrop is setting up for a bond market rally. While Barron's is not as reliable as The Economist as a contrarian magazine cover indicator, the stars appear to be lining up for a counter-trend rally in bond prices. Here is what a potential bond...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that one of my bullish tripwires were violations of relative support by defensive sectors (see Is the pullback over?). The bulls have largely achieved that task. The S&P 500 appears to be on its way to a test of the old highs. In addition,...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
