Mid-week market update: The US markets have surged recently relative to global equity markets, as measured by MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI). Developed markets (EAFE) and emerging markets (EM) have weakened on a relative basis. How long can this last? The S&P 500 is testing an important resistance level that could lead to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It's been over a year since the stock market bottom at the height of the Pandemic Panic. The market consensus has evolved from an early cycle recovery to a mid-cycle expansion, as evidenced by the BoA Global Fund Manager Survey. What that means for investors? Here are the key questions we focus on:...
Mid-week market update: I've had a number of questions from readers about the warnings of imminent market declines from SentimenTrader. In this post, Jason Goepfert's headline was "This Led to Declines Every Time in the Past 93 Years". He highlighted the market's poor breadth, as measured by the percentage of stocks above their 50 dma....
I have been asked to comment on Bitcoin. On a short-term basis, BTC is testing support while exhibiting a positive RSI divergence. That's the good news. The bad news is BTC and other cryptocurrencies are facing an existential threat. The quantum computing threat I came across a Decrypt article entitled "Quantum computers...
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