Mid-week market update: So much for the Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast which was calling for a tame CPI surprise. The market reacted to the hot CPI print this morning by adopting a risk-off tone, though it recovered later in the day. For equity investors, keep in mind that the intermediate-term structure of the S&P 500...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It's stunning how market psychology has changed. In the space of a few months, we've swung from "everyone is bullish" to "everyone is bearish". These results from the BoA Global Fund Manager Survey were done in early June and sentiment has likely deteriorated since then. The good news is the market is becoming...
Mid-week market update: You can tell a lot about the tone of a stock market by the way it reacts to news. The 2s10s yield curve just inverted again, which has been a sign of an impending recession. If history is any guide, yield curve inversions have marked major market tops. The exceptions, shown as...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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