Risk budgeting ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings report

Mid-week market update: Several readers asked me for comments going into NVIDIA's earnings report Wednesday night, so I thought I would publish my mid-week update a little earlier than usual.   Bottom line, I have no idea about NVIDIA's fundamentals. You can study the chart pattern, but event-driven market moves are "roll the dice" moments....

Bullish momentum vs. bearish seasonality

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

An almost Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal

Mid-week market update: The market almost flashed a Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal this week, though there is some dispute over the calculations. As a reminder, a ZBT buy signal is triggered when the market rises from oversold to overbought within 10 trading days. According to StockCharts, the market never reached the oversold condition on...

4 reasons why you should be tactically bullish

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...