The hidden schism in the BoA Fund Manager Survey

Mid-week market update: BoA published its monthly Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) this week and the results were not a big surprise. In the last few months, the FMS had increasingly become a price momentum indicator whose readings were fairly predictable based on recent market trends. Respondent risk appetite was turning up after bottoming out...

Key tests at resistance ahead of earnings season

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Time to revisit the question: How investable is China?

There were some questions raised about the investability of China last year as regulatory uncertainty rose amidst some market turmoil. Fast forward to today, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 20% from its October low and technically entered a new bull market. Enthusiasm is rising on the prospect of China's abandonment of its zero COVID policy...

The bulls cross their fingers for January

Mid-week market update: The bulls are nervously getting ready for a party. Jeff Hirsch of Almanac Trader pointed out that two of his January indicators are positive. When all three are positive, the rest of the year tends to lean bullish.    This year, the market has eked out a 0.8% gain for its Santa...

New Year, New Fears

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...