Mid-week market update: Geopolitical risks are rising and it remains to be seen how the market reacts to geopolitical stress. On the weekend, I made the following tweet. Those fears are becoming more real. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated in a tweet, "Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian military has placed...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In many ways, politicians are worse than magazine covers as contrarian indicators. Magazine editors focus on an economic issue when it moves from page 20 to page 1 in the public’s mind. By that time, it’s been largely discounted by the market. Politicians are worse. They follow the trends raised by magazine editors and are...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 daily stochastic recycled from overbought to neutral last week and stock prices pulled back. Initial support can be found at about 4320, with secondary support at about 4200, which is also the approximate level of the 50 dma. Can 4320 hold? Signs of weakness I am seeing...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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