Mid-week market update: The usually reliable S&P 500 Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscilator (ITBM) flashed a buy signal in the third week of June when its 14-day RSI recycled from oversold to neutral. The S&P 500 consolidated sideways for about a week and resumed it climb. This is the story of why I did not...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Recent U.S. economic data has generally been weakening, as evidenced by the decline in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (ESI, gold line), which measures whether economic data is beating or missing expectations. As ESI has been roughly correlated to bond yields, this should put downward pressure on rates and expectations of rate cuts in the...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 followed the typical pattern of consolidating sideways for about a week after an upper Bollinger Band ride before breakout out to a fresh all-time high. As recent history shows, it's impossible to know which way stock prices will break after the consolidation. In many ways, the upside...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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