Just a quick update in a day with a fast moving market. Trump's tariffs are eliciting a reaction among key supporters and the real economy. Pittsburgh based Howmet Aerospace, a key supplier to Airbus and Boeing, declared force majeure on its contracts owing to the new tariff regime. Force majeure is a legal practice allows...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
What should investors make of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which was characterized as “worst than the worst-case scenario”? Instant analysis from several sources shows that the weighted average tariff rate is now higher than the rates from the Smoot-Hawley era of the 1930s. Trump claims that his tariffs will raise $6 trillion over the next...
Mid-week market update: The market approached Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement all beared up. Trading desk surveys indicate that most retail and institutional market participants had reduced risk coming into the announcement, with outright bears outnumbering the buy-the-dip crowd by 7%. While the ultimate outcome of the Trump tariffs will move markets, there's...
Special Announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publishing a year from now, on March 31, 2026. (This is being published on March 31, 2025 and it is not an April Fools joke). Here's some history. I began writing Humble Student of the Markets in 2007. I had left Merrill Lynch to begin...
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