Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The purpose of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium isn’t to make decisions about the short-term direction of monetary policy, but to consider the long run implications of policy. It is in that spirit that I consider the short- and long-run implications of Trump’s America First policies. The primary purpose of Trump’s policy initiatives...
Mid-week market update: Is the much anticipated market pullback starting? The U.S. equity market recently saw a violent rotation from growth to value, led by downdrafts in market darlings like NVIDIA and Palantir. Notwithstanding the change in leadership, I have been monitoring the evolution of the VVIX, or the volatility of the VIX, which spiked...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Trump’s pressure for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve is growing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a TV interview last week, “If you look at any model for the Fed Funds rate, it suggests that we should probably be 150, 175 basis points lower.” Stephen Miran, who is Trump’s pick to fill...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
