Bessent gets his wish, but not in a good way

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently declared that the Trump Administration was mainly focused on lower the 10-year Treasury yield. He seems to be accomplishing his goals. Yields are moderating, and the MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, is relatively tame. He is achieving his objective, but at a price – by tanking the economy....

White smoke from the market’s conclave?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Could a cyclical rebound give the bulls a second wind?

Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts recently argued for the emergence of a global cyclical rebound based on a synchronized central bank easing. Such a scenario of rising inflationary pressures is a signal of a renewal of cyclical rebound in demand.     I have some sympathy to that view. I have been bullish on gold...

Who’s left to buy?

Mid-week market update: The results of the latest sentiment surveys argue that this is a time for caution. The BoA Global Fund Manager Survey shows cash at a 15-year low.     The institutions are all-in on risk. Who's left to buy?   A Charles Schwab survey of client accounts show that cash levels are...