Mid-week market update: Investors have seen this movie before, which I described as a Trump collar. As the accompanying chart of the trade war factor, Trump shown a pain point at which the market anxiety, as measured by the VIX and MOVE Index, rises enough that he moderates his course on tariff belligerence. As market anxiety...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It’s official, my long-term market timing model has confirmed a buy signal at the end of June. It first flashed a sell signal in late January when the 14-month RSI of the NYSE Composite exhibited a negative divergence when the market made a new high, but RSI didn’t. Now it flashed a buy signal at...
Mid-week market update: I suggested on the weekend that the animal spirits were back. Indeed, the market may be undergoing a broadening in breadth and leadership. NASDAQ 100 stocks are coming off the boil, and med- and small-cap stocks are showing signs of life. That's a welcome short-term sign that this rally may have more...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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