Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
How worried should equity investors be about valuation? The S&P 500 is trading at a forward P/E of 20.6, which is elevated compared to its 5-year average of 19.1 and 10-year average of 17.8. Moreover, the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5% is becoming a more attractive alternative to owning stocks. Here are the...
Mid-week market update: In the wake of the hot CPI print and the doubts raised by members of the FOMC as shown in the minutes, such as: Some participants noted that the recent increases in inflation had been relatively broad based and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations. However, a few participants...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Last week, I suggested that even though Fed Chair Powell voiced a balanced view of inflation, a voting bloc of hawks (Waller, Bostic, Barkin, and Bowman) on the FOMC may be a key obstacle to the market expectations of a June rate cut. Indeed, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his view last week of...
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