The trader Alex Barrow recently observed that the sentiment backdrop is setting up for a bond market rally. While Barron's is not as reliable as The Economist as a contrarian magazine cover indicator, the stars appear to be lining up for a counter-trend rally in bond prices. Here is what a potential bond...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that one of my bullish tripwires were violations of relative support by defensive sectors (see Is the pullback over?). The bulls have largely achieved that task. The S&P 500 appears to be on its way to a test of the old highs. In addition,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It is said that the only free lunch in investing is diversification. That's especially true for US-based investors in light of the elevated valuations of US equities. With that idea in mind, let's take a quick tour around the world to see where the opportunities are, and where they're not. Geographically, the world...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend (see Where's the fear?) that the relief rally that began last Thursday was unconvincing and my base case scenario called for a retest of the lows. The retest appears to be underway. Spikes of the VIX Index above its upper Bollinger Band (BB) were signals...
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