Twilight of the AI Bull?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

AI Productivity and the Promised Land

This is the first in a series of the opportunities and threats to productivity. I begin the series with a focus on the productivity effects of AI adoption.   There has been a lot of excitement over the productivity-enhancing promise of artificial intelligence. From a policy perspective, productivity is important as it defines the rate...

Seasonal Weakness Ahead?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Waller’s Gambit

In the wake of the August Payroll Report, let’s review the Fed’s dilemma and the views of Fed Governor Chris Waller, one of the frontrunners to be the next Fed Chair.   Is monetary policy restrictive? Yes, by a number of measures. The Cleveland Fed recently published a study that estimated r-star, or the neutral...