Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As reporters tried to elicit the Fed’s reaction function from Jerome Powell during the July post-FOMC press conference, Bloomberg’s Michael McKee asked a very different question relating to the juxtaposition of fiscal and monetary policy in the years ahead: McKEE: Do you have concerns about the cost to the government of keeping rates elevated for...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Q2 earnings season was supposed to be a key test of how the Trump tariffs would affect corporate earnings and margins. The coming week will see the bulk of the S&P 500 by weight report results. So far, the preliminary verdict has been relatively benign. Negative effects from tariffs seem to be the exception rather...
Mid-week market update: One key development that I had been monitoring is the upside or downside resolution of the sideways consolidation that often occurs after the market ends an upper Bollinger Band ride. Investors may have a tentative answer. It's an upside breakout. The S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500 finally staged an upside breakout...
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