What should you buy as the Magnificent Seven falters?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Bessent gets his wish, but not in a good way

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently declared that the Trump Administration was mainly focused on lower the 10-year Treasury yield. He seems to be accomplishing his goals. Yields are moderating, and the MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, is relatively tame. He is achieving his objective, but at a price – by tanking the economy....

White smoke from the market’s conclave?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...