Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The S&P 500 has been in a steady uptrend for over two years and it just staged an upside breakout to an all-time high. It may seem counterintuitive to be discussing the risks of a major market top, but I am seeing some early warnings that few analysts are paying attention to. ...
Mid-week market update: Trump promised a flurry of executive orders to implement his campaign promises on the first day he took office. Amidst the flurry, the market breathed a sigh of relief as there were no major risk-off catalysts. The market is apolitical and it doesn't care about the reversal of DEI policies, or whether...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
There are many remarkable similarities between the 1980–1981 stock market pattern and today. Ronald Reagan was elected in November 1980 amidst a wave of partisan enthusiasm and ushered in a revolution, much like Trump. Reagan entered office with a foreign policy win, which was the release of the American hostages held by Iran. Trump enters...
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