Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Publication notice: I will be starting a two-week holiday this weekend, and here is my planned publication schedule. Weekend publications will be condensed from two publications to one. Barring significant market volatility, there will be no mid-week market update. Regular service will resume after the U.S. election. Mid-week market update: We are in the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Further to my last post (see A buy signal setup), the 14-day RSI of the S&P 500 Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) flashed a buy signal when it recycled from oversold to neutral. By the book, this is a legitimate buy signal. Under the current circumstances, I have some...
Is the U.S. progress on inflation a case of two steps forward, one step back? Even before the stronger-than-expected September CPI report, bond prices were declining in the wake of the Fed’s jumbo half-point rate cut decision. The Treasury market is exhibiting signs of anxiety from a technical analyst’s perspective. The 7–10-year Treasury ETF...
Mid-week market update: Ryan Detrick has been correctly bullish during the rally from late 2023. He recently pointed out that it may be time for the stock market to take a breather, "October higher only once out of six times it was up 30% or more going into Q4 and Q4 below avg returns as...
There is an adage on Wall Street that investors shouldn’t fight the Fed (or central banks in general), but the devil is in the details. Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts that global central banks are engaged in a broad-based easing campaign. The limited sample of the history of such episodes (annotations are mine) show...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I continue to believe that the stock market is vulnerable to a setback. It's not just the negative RSI divergence, which is concerning, it's the inability for breadth to broaden out that's worrisome. As the accompanying chart shows, the equal-weighted S&P 500 to S&P 500 ratio stalled out at a relative resistance...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The Fed hates to surprise markets, but for the first time in a long time, market expectations of FOMC action was highly uncertain. Is the Fed going to cut by 25 or 50 bps? On the weekend, the majority expected a 25 bps cut, but by Monday, it had shifted to 50....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 struggles and regained its 50 dma, the corrective phase may not be over. Here are the challenges the bulls face. Narrow breadth The market rebound was accompanied by narrow breadth. Such a development could have negative implications for bulls who expect broadening breadth as...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Now that the 2s10s yield curve has un-inverted, a review of sector leadership is showing bearish vibes. In particular, the relative performance of defensive sectors is turning up. I conducted an extensive sector and factor rotation review to determine the extent of the damage. Bearish vibes For the purposes of analyzing...
Mid-week market update: When I wrote on the weekend that the stock market was undergoing a prelude to a correction, I never dreamed that the S&P 500 would skid -2.1% on the first trading day in September to test its 50 dma. What happened? Unsatisfactory answers None of the conventional explanations...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The market almost flashed a Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal this week, though there is some dispute over the calculations. As a reminder, a ZBT buy signal is triggered when the market rises from oversold to overbought within 10 trading days. According to StockCharts, the market never reached the oversold condition on...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
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