Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Now that the 2s10s yield curve has un-inverted, a review of sector leadership is showing bearish vibes. In particular, the relative performance of defensive sectors is turning up. I conducted an extensive sector and factor rotation review to determine the extent of the damage. Bearish vibes For the purposes of analyzing...
Mid-week market update: When I wrote on the weekend that the stock market was undergoing a prelude to a correction, I never dreamed that the S&P 500 would skid -2.1% on the first trading day in September to test its 50 dma. What happened? Unsatisfactory answers None of the conventional explanations...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The market almost flashed a Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal this week, though there is some dispute over the calculations. As a reminder, a ZBT buy signal is triggered when the market rises from oversold to overbought within 10 trading days. According to StockCharts, the market never reached the oversold condition on...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that investors should watch for signs of an O'Neill follow through day for bullish confirmation of the rebound. A follow through day can occur as soon as day 4 (last Friday) of a rally. It’s defined as the index rising 1% or more on higher volume...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
After strengthening rapidly, the Japanese Yen (bottom panel) has stabilized has stabilized in the 140-150 range. The 10-year Treasury-JGB spread also stabilized and found support. So did the Nikkei Average after suffering the greatest one-day decline since the Crash of 1987. The Bank of Japan sounded a dovish tone when deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said...
Mid-week market update: Is the worst of the Japanese risk-off episode over? The Nikkei formed a bullish harami pattern when it recovered on Tuesday, but the recovery candle formed an "inside day" compared to Monday's massive downdraft. As well, BOJ deputy governor Governor Shinichi Uchida calmed markets and struck a dovish tone when he said...
Over the weekend, I wrote that risk appetite is at the mercy of the carry trade (see The carry trade as risk driver). I did not expect that the Yen would continue to skid badly and the Nikkei would crater by -12.4%, which is its worse one-day decline since the Crash of 1987. While correlation...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: This week has been full of major market moving events. The BOJ raised rates and announced it would half its bond buying program. The announcement spiked the JPY and set off a scramble to unwind the carry trade. The Fed kept rates unchanged today, but hinted strongly at a September rate cut....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It’s becoming harder and harder to avoid the cold hard facts. China is slowing. The PBOC unexpectedly cut interest rates last week. The central bank began by cutting the benchmark lending rate on overnight, 7-day and 1-month standing lending facility (SLF). The move was followed by another surprising 0.20% cut in its 1-year policy rate,...
Mid-week market update: Today's market action looks rather ugly today, but I believe that stock prices are poised for a short-term bottom as the S&P 500 tests a key rising trend line on the weekly chart. Here's why. A market bottom signal Two of the components of my market bottom model...
Well, well, the Biden decision to withdraw from the presidential race certainly put a new spin on stock market behaviour. According to Ryan Detrick, stock prices don't behave well during election years of lame duck presidents. That said, "lame duck" years often refer to a second term president. The closest analogues to the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Small cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 and S&P 600, staged convincing upside breakouts in the past week. Both small cap indices are now testing key relative resistance zones against the S&P 500. Even though this seems to be counter-intuitive, such a development could be bearish for the...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
