The Animal Spirits are Back in Charge!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A Forthy Breakout

Mid-week market update: One of the bullish tripwires I outlined on the weekend has triggered (see Buy the Cannons: Exploring the Bull Case). The small cap Russell 2000 ETF staged an upside breakout through the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a measured upside objective of ~250, which represents a potential upside...

Buy the Cannons: Exploring the Bull Case

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The Three Most Important Words in Investing

Mid-week market update: As expected, the Fed stayed on hold today and took a wait-and-see attitude on the timing of rate cuts. While economic data has softened recently, as evidenced by the decline in the U.S. Economic Surprise Index, the Fed is still waiting for clarity on the effects of tariffs on inflation to make monetary...

How to Capitalize on Narrative Volatility

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

I want to believe

Mid-week market update:  One of the running themes of the TV show, the X-Files, is a poster on the wall of FBI agent Mulder with the caption “I want to believe”.     As the S&P 500 breaks out at the 6000 resistance level and Street strategists scramble to their index targets, I also want...

A cresting tide?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The S&P 500 nears a ceiling

Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has been a little stronger than I expected as it tests upside resistance. I would urge traders to exercise caution as the market is exhibiting negative RSI divergences. Even though these kinds of divergences can persist for a while, they nevertheless indicate limited upside potential.       A valuation...

Bullish Exhaustion = Pullback or Consolidation

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Don’t just obsess over NVIDIA

Mid-week market update: On the weekend, I presented this inverted chart of the S&P 500 as a different perspective and rhetorically asked, "Would you buy a stock with this chart?"     At the time, I had a slight bearish tilt on the market. Since then, the news backdrop has been calming. Trump extended the...

Bond vigilantes and trade tensions derail the momentum bull

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

From Fear to Greed

Mid-week market update: The market's turnaround on Monday was remarkable. Going into Friday, expectations for the Geneva trade talks weren't high. Trump had floated a reduction in the tariff rate to 80%. Instead, the U.S. cut the rate to 30%, and China cut its rate to 10%. With recession tail-risk fading, it's not a surprise...

A Sector and Factor Review of Market Internals

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Trust the Thrust, or Sell in May?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A ZBT buy signal update

Mid-week market update: Today's market action has a constructive quality to it. The S&P 500 managed to stage an upside breakout through 5500 resistance and fill the price gap just above that level. The latest development saw the index pulled back to succesfully test the 5500 resistance turned support       It's normal to...

4 reasons to be cautious about the ZBT buy signal

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...