Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I was a little hesitant about jumping to instant conclusions about the upside breakout of several market indices in reaction to Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, and I wanted to wait for signs of confirmation. We have it now. The Dow and the equal-weighted S&P 500 staged upside breakouts, and they are holding...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Is the much anticipated market pullback starting? The U.S. equity market recently saw a violent rotation from growth to value, led by downdrafts in market darlings like NVIDIA and Palantir. Notwithstanding the change in leadership, I have been monitoring the evolution of the VVIX, or the volatility of the VIX, which spiked...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Yesterday’s July CPI report came in roughly in line with market expectations. Headline CPI was a hair below consensus, while core CPI was a hair above consensus. Even as the bond market greeted the report with caution, the stock market responded with a risk-on stampede in the expectation of a September rate cut....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Two components of my Bottom Spotting Model flashed buy signals last Friday. The VIX Index spiked over its upper Bollinger Band, and the NYSE McClellan Oscillator reached an oversold condition. In the past, the triggers of two or more component buy signals were signs of tactical bottoms. This time, my inner...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: One key development that I had been monitoring is the upside or downside resolution of the sideways consolidation that often occurs after the market ends an upper Bollinger Band ride. Investors may have a tentative answer. It's an upside breakout. The S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500 finally staged an upside breakout...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: It's remarkable how resilient the stock market has been in light of the challenges it's facing. The S&P 500 ended an upper Bollinger Band ride last week and it's been consolidating sideways. The newsflow has been mostly negative, and stock prices have been given lots of opportunity to retreat but the index remains...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Investors have seen this movie before, which I described as a Trump collar. As the accompanying chart of the trade war factor, Trump shown a pain point at which the market anxiety, as measured by the VIX and MOVE Index, rises enough that he moderates his course on tariff belligerence. As market anxiety...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I suggested on the weekend that the animal spirits were back. Indeed, the market may be undergoing a broadening in breadth and leadership. NASDAQ 100 stocks are coming off the boil, and med- and small-cap stocks are showing signs of life. That's a welcome short-term sign that this rally may have more...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: One of the bullish tripwires I outlined on the weekend has triggered (see Buy the Cannons: Exploring the Bull Case). The small cap Russell 2000 ETF staged an upside breakout through the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a measured upside objective of ~250, which represents a potential upside...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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