Mid-week market update: One of the bullish tripwires I outlined on the weekend has triggered (see Buy the Cannons: Exploring the Bull Case). The small cap Russell 2000 ETF staged an upside breakout through the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a measured upside objective of ~250, which represents a potential upside...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: As expected, the Fed stayed on hold today and took a wait-and-see attitude on the timing of rate cuts. While economic data has softened recently, as evidenced by the decline in the U.S. Economic Surprise Index, the Fed is still waiting for clarity on the effects of tariffs on inflation to make monetary...
Mid-week market update: One of the running themes of the TV show, the X-Files, is a poster on the wall of FBI agent Mulder with the caption “I want to believe”. As the S&P 500 breaks out at the 6000 resistance level and Street strategists scramble to their index targets, I also want...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: On the weekend, I presented this inverted chart of the S&P 500 as a different perspective and rhetorically asked, "Would you buy a stock with this chart?" At the time, I had a slight bearish tilt on the market. Since then, the news backdrop has been calming. Trump extended the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Is this Donald Trump's Liz Truss Moment? In the fall of 2022, UK prime minister passed a series of unfunded tax cuts. The bond market rebelled and sold off hard, especially in the long end of the yield curve. The massive sell-off forced a number of "hedged" pension funds into technical insolvency,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The market approached Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement all beared up. Trading desk surveys indicate that most retail and institutional market participants had reduced risk coming into the announcement, with outright bears outnumbering the buy-the-dip crowd by 7%. While the ultimate outcome of the Trump tariffs will move markets, there's...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Four weeks ago, I rhetorically asked in a post, "Who's Left to Buy?" The BoA monthly Global Fund Manager Survey had shown cash levels at a 15-year low. In addition, a Schwab survey of customer accounts showed cash at similarly historical lows. It was the case of an accident waiting to happen....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 fell yesterday and briefly kissed its 200 dma while flashing a positive divergence on the 5-day RSI. Was that the bottom? Here is a lesson on how to spot market bottoms, and a review of bottom spotting indicators. Condition indicators First of all, RSI...
Mid-week market update: Is the correction over? The S&P 500 was down -3% on a peak-to-trough basis. The 5-day RSI is severely oversold, which has signaled relief rallies in the past (blue circles). On the other hand, the percentage of stocks above their 20 dma is not oversold, which have been more definitive signals of...
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