Mid-week market update: The latest BoA Global Manager Survey shows that institutions have stampeded into U.S. equities in the wake of Trump’s victory. The apparent crowded long position is concerning from a contrarian viewpoint. I had suggested on the weekend that it was time for the S&P 500 to pause and take a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Publication notice: I will be starting a two-week holiday this weekend, and here is my planned publication schedule. Weekend publications will be condensed from two publications to one. Barring significant market volatility, there will be no mid-week market update. Regular service will resume after the U.S. election. Mid-week market update: We are in the...
Goldman Sachs recently reported that the allocation to equities as a percentage of household assets had risen to levels last seen at the height of the NASDAQ Bubble. Is this an ominous sign of a crowded trade? Are investors in a crowded long that stocks are about to enter a painful 2000–2002-style bear market? ...
Mid-week market update: Further to my last post (see A buy signal setup), the 14-day RSI of the S&P 500 Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) flashed a buy signal when it recycled from oversold to neutral. By the book, this is a legitimate buy signal. Under the current circumstances, I have some...
It has been over a week since the Fed’s decision to cut rates by a half-point, and that’s a decent interval to assess the market reaction. Investors should be aware of one crucial detail about market psychology. Even as the Fed offered a “commitment not to fall behind the curve” as a way of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The Fed hates to surprise markets, but for the first time in a long time, market expectations of FOMC action was highly uncertain. Is the Fed going to cut by 25 or 50 bps? On the weekend, the majority expected a 25 bps cut, but by Monday, it had shifted to 50....
Mid-week market update: Several readers asked me for comments going into NVIDIA's earnings report Wednesday night, so I thought I would publish my mid-week update a little earlier than usual. Bottom line, I have no idea about NVIDIA's fundamentals. You can study the chart pattern, but event-driven market moves are "roll the dice" moments....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
After strengthening rapidly, the Japanese Yen (bottom panel) has stabilized has stabilized in the 140-150 range. The 10-year Treasury-JGB spread also stabilized and found support. So did the Nikkei Average after suffering the greatest one-day decline since the Crash of 1987. The Bank of Japan sounded a dovish tone when deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said...
Mid-week market update: Is the worst of the Japanese risk-off episode over? The Nikkei formed a bullish harami pattern when it recovered on Tuesday, but the recovery candle formed an "inside day" compared to Monday's massive downdraft. As well, BOJ deputy governor Governor Shinichi Uchida calmed markets and struck a dovish tone when he said...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
We’ve all seen the warning signs about narrow market concentration and deteriorating breadth. The S&P 500 is an accident waiting to happen. On the other hand, strategist Ed Yardeni stated in a CNBC interview that he believed we are in a “slow motion melt-up”. I agree. While the excesses in the stock market are...
Mid-week market update: The usually reliable S&P 500 Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscilator (ITBM) flashed a buy signal in the third week of June when its 14-day RSI recycled from oversold to neutral. The S&P 500 consolidated sideways for about a week and resumed it climb. This is the story of why I did not...
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