It's finally happened, the euro fell below par against the US Dollar. The weakness can be attributable to a combination of Fed hawkishness and European economic weakness. Europe is almost certainly in a recession. Consumer confidence has skidded to levels last seen during the Eurozone Crisis of 2011-2012. The questions are whether the...
Mid-week market update: According to Goldman Sachs, systematic hedge fund positioning has reversed from a crowded short to a crowded long. Readings are similar to the levels seen at the market top in late March. The S&P 500 stalled at 200 dma resistance. In light of this analysis of HF positioning, the bulls...
The Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium is being held this week on August 25-27. Fed officials have fanned out across the land to deliver the message that market expectations of a dovish pivot are misplaced. The question for investors is, "Are market expectations finally rational?" The CME's Fedwatch tool shows the market expects...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Wall Street is full of adages. Technical analysts are fond of, "Price leads fundaments" as a way of dismissing macro and fundamental analysis. But traders are also warned, "Don't fight the Fed". A vast gulf is appearing between bullish technicals and macro concerns. The bulls, who are mainly technicians, point to strong price momentum,...
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