Why the risk-off tone? Isn’t divided government bullish?

Mid-week market update: Why have the markets gone risk-off? Isn't divided government supposed to be equity bullish?   While the exact results of the mid-term elections aren't known just yet, polling models and PredictIt odds, which represent consensus expectations, show a narrow Republican majority in the House and a probable Democrat control of the Senate....

The hidden story of investor capitulation

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Peering into 2023: A bear market roadmap

In the wake of the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell summarized Fed policy very clearly with two statements: "We will stay the course until the job is done". He added, "It is very premature to think about pausing (rate hikes)".   It was a hawkish message, though Fed Funds expectations were largely unchanged...

Do the bulls have anything left in the tank for their charge?

Mid-week market update: It's always difficult to make tactical trading calls on FOMC meeting day. The S&P 500 approached the latest meeting with the 5-day RSI near overbought territory. The experience in 2022 of overbought or near overbought conditions on meeting days (March and July, n=2) has seen stock prices continue to advance. Can it...

How to trade the Fed Whisperer rally

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...