Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It was a closely watched FOMC meeting. The Fed raised rates by a quarter-point, which was widely anticipated, and signaled that it would likely raise another quarter-point before it's done. It was interpreted as a dovish hike. The Fed also published a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), also known as the "dot plot". In the...
Mid-week market update: Investors and traders have been waiting for the moment of the FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference. How does the Fed respond to the twin challenges of a banking John Authers highlighted analysis from Bespoke indicating the market was entering a period of extreme volatility in Fed Funds futures. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In response to the recent financial turmoil, Fed Funds futures is discounting a 25 bps hike at next week's FOMC meeting, followed by a brief peak and rapid rate cuts for the rest of the year. Are those market expectations realistic? How will the Fed navigate between the Scylla of inflation and Charybdis...
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