Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Now that Donald Trump has become the presumptive Republican nominee for President, Wall Street is scrambling to model how a Trump White House may affect capital markets. A recent Bloomberg article summarized the consensus: Bond market: Expect rising yields from upward pressures on term premium. Currencies: Rising yields will put a bid under the USD....
Mid-week market update: I told you that there would be volatility (see Numerous wildcards add up to ST volatility). In light of signs of stretched positioning, the prudent course of action for traders is to step to the sidelines. Here are the different sources of volatility that are buffeting the markets. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The problems keep piling up in China. Weakening demographics, as her population shrank for a second consecutive year. Weak consumer spending. A record property downturn. Rising trade tensions. The drip-drip-drip of these glitches culminated in a massive stock market wipeout as over US$6 trillion has been wiped from the combined capitalization of the Chinese...
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