Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
When Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a moderated Q&A last Tuesday, he confirmed the higher-for-longer message of virtually all other Fed speakers: “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence [to reduce rates]”. As a...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that conditions were setting up for a panic bottom (see Here comes the sentiment flush), but one final flush may be necessary to spark a relief rally. The S&P 500 has now achieved the milestones for a panic bottom. The stochastic is sufficiently oversold. The index violated...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
How worried should equity investors be about valuation? The S&P 500 is trading at a forward P/E of 20.6, which is elevated compared to its 5-year average of 19.1 and 10-year average of 17.8. Moreover, the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5% is becoming a more attractive alternative to owning stocks. Here are the...
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