The stock market’s Q2 challenges

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Why the first Fed rate cut will be later than June

Sometimes being Fed Chair is a trying easy job. During the last post-FOMC press conference, Powell was given numerous opportunities to interpret the data in a hawkish fashion. Instead, he took a dovish tone.   As one of many examples, Jenna Smialek of the New York Times asked if strengthening in the labour market would...

Lucy and the correction football

Mid-week market update: Since January, I have been saying that the stock market is extended and could pull back at any time. The latest conditions shows that the S&P 500 is consolidating sideways after pulling back from above its upper Bollinger Band. The stochastic has recycled from overbought to neutral, which is a tactical sell...