Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The instant market reaction on FOMC day can often be deceptive. Instead of a general market comment, I will focus instead on analyzing sectors using sentiment, momentum, and contrarian approaches. As a measure of sentiment, John Butters at FactSet recently analyzed sectors by the number of buy, hold, and sell rankings. ...
The big market moving event this week on this side of the Atlantic is the FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday with a statement, followed by a press conference by Fed chair Jerome Powell. Ahead of that event, let us consider what market expectations are for Fed policy. The CME's Fedwatch Tool shows that the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
For the longest time, I never "got" crytocurrencies. I never bought into the idea of an urgent need for a currency that is outside the control of the "authorities", or how you ascribe value to something that had no cash flow. If it has no cash flow, then how do you calculate a DCF value?...
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