Is a trade deal imminent?

On Friday, Trump said that a trade deal with China was "potentially very close" (via CNBC): President Donald Trump on Friday said that a long-negotiated trade deal with China is “potentially very close” following reports that an agreement might not be reached until next year. Trump was speaking on one of his favorite television programs,...

Cyclical global recovery: Easy come, easy go?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Could this FOMO surge be a mirage?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A correction in price, or time?

Mid-week market update: What to make of today's market? It is obviously overbought. The 14-day RSI is skirting the 70 level, which defines an overbought condition and that has been the reading at which past advances have temporarily stalled. Arguably, the 5-day RSI is flashing a series of "good overbought" conditions indicating strong price momentum,...