Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Even as the slowdown gloom overtook the market in the past few weeks, stock prices did not break down. Now, the storm seems to be passing as green shoots of growth are starting to appear. For equity investors, the most notable change was the reversal in forward 12-month EPS estimates, which bottomed...
I have two thoughts ahead of the March Jobs Report that investors should consider. Let's start with the tactical picture of what Friday's reports might bring. Recent jobs data has been distorted by the effects of the federal government shutdown, which can make the reported figures nonsensical. Now that the effects of the shutdown are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The " Ultimate Market Timing Model " is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each...
Mid-week market update: I had characterized this week as a "show me" week for the market, though I had a slight bullish bias (see How the market could melt up). While I remained tactically bullish, a number of unanswered questions remained in light of the yield curve related sell-off that began late last week. Some...
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