A focus on financials

The Q4 earnings reporting season kicks off Wednesday with reports from major banks and financial companies. This is a good opportunity to review the outlook for the financial sector.       What election rally? Let's begin with the bad news. The post-election gains for financial stocks have completely evaporated (top panel). The good news...

What’s rattling the stock market?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A tale of two markets

Mid-week market update: When we last left the stock market on the weekend, the bulls were given a homework assignment (see A failed Santa rally, what now?).   The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 had to stage upside breakout through the falling dotted trend line. While the S&P 500 briefly broke out, it retreated yesterday...

A failed Santa rally, now what?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...