Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out” in trade negotiations. Financial Times journalist Robert Armstrong coined the term “TACO trade” as a colourful way of characterizing the Trump Put. When questioned by a reporter, Trump turned livid when he learned what TACO stood for. It is in that context when, later in the day,...
Mid-week market update: On the weekend, I presented this inverted chart of the S&P 500 as a different perspective and rhetorically asked, "Would you buy a stock with this chart?" At the time, I had a slight bearish tilt on the market. Since then, the news backdrop has been calming. Trump extended the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I am reiterating my bullish view on gold. Gold staged an upside breakout through a cup-and-handle pattern at 2100 in early 2024 and hasn’t looked back since. Moreover, it has staged upside relative breakouts against both the S&P 500 and a 60/40 proxy and it has stayed above the relative breakout levels even after the...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 were consolidating its gains after the upside price gap in reaction to the Sino-American interim trade agreement. You can tell a lot about the psychology of a market by the way it reacts to gaps. So far, the gap hasn't been filled - and some gaps are never filled,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent didn’t return from Switzerland and proclaim “Trade peace in our time” while waving a piece of paper. Instead, the interim deal represented a signal toward a trade détente and the acknowledgement that China is an equal in global trade with the U.S. The agreement. lowered the U.S. tariff on Chinese...
Mid-week market update: The market's turnaround on Monday was remarkable. Going into Friday, expectations for the Geneva trade talks weren't high. Trump had floated a reduction in the tariff rate to 80%. Instead, the U.S. cut the rate to 30%, and China cut its rate to 10%. With recession tail-risk fading, it's not a surprise...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that the economy may need to undergo a detox period before it returns to more stable growth. Since that warning, stock prices sharply pulled back and the VIX Index spiked to above 60, which are levels not seen since the 2024 bottom, the COVID Crash and the GFC. Related...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 is stalling just below its 200 dma after becoming overbought on the 5-day RSI and the percentage of stocks above the 20 dma. What technical pattern is it tracing out? Is it a bull flag (shown by the red lines), or a bear flag (black lines). Bullishness...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
My Trend Asset Allocation Model is a market timing model that has been running since 2013. While the model only issues buy, hold and sell signals for stocks, investors nevertheless need to make their own decisions on how much to buy and sell. Based on my out-of-sample signals, I created a model portfolio by varying...
Mid-week market update: Today's market action has a constructive quality to it. The S&P 500 managed to stage an upside breakout through 5500 resistance and fill the price gap just above that level. The latest development saw the index pulled back to succesfully test the 5500 resistance turned support It's normal to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Something unusual happened recently. During risk-off episodes, U.S. economic pain has been cushioned by falling bond yields and an appreciating USD, which translates into lower interest rates and more consumer spending power. The risk-off episode that began in early April, which was just after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, saw the opposite. The price...
Mid-week market update: It's time to sound the all-clear signal, as least in the short run. Both the S&P 500 and the equal-weighted S&P 500 have decisively staged upside breakouts through the falling trend line. The bulls have regained control of the tape. The next resistance test is the 50% retracement level at...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Ahead of the Second Gulf War, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously referred to “known knowns”, “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” when responding to a question about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Fast forward to 2025, investors have to contend with a series of known unknowns and unknown unknowns as they consider their investment...
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