It’s that time of year again to offer my readers the highest conviction idea for the coming year. Last year, my bullish call on gold worked out extremely well (see 2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold). Gold prices soared in all currencies and was one of the best-performing asset classes for the year. This...
Mid-week market update: Coming into the December FOMC decision, I was worried that the market might react negatively on the prospect of a hawkish rate cut. Ahead of the meeting, the Committee was highly divided and the potential for a divided decision was extremely high. As it turns out, the level of hawkishness had...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In 1995, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan made an unconventional bet that the U.S. was undergoing an era of faster productivity growth based on the adoption of technology. The decision enabled a significant shift in monetary policy that resulted in faster non-inflationary growth and increased prosperity. The adoption of easier monetary policy also fueled the Dot-Com...
Mid-week market update: I noticed on the weekend that there was a lot of excitement over the possibility of a Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal, probably because of the strong advance last week. The stock market consolidated this week, and while the ZBT window closes Friday, the degree of breadth strength to achieve a ZBT...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As Americans recover from their extended Thanksgiving feasts, they were faced with the news of skidding consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index weakened to levels just above the lows seen during the post-COVID expansion. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Confidence, which was released in early November, was even worse....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Is it all over for artificial intelligence-related plays? AI market leader NVIDIA reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results, and CEO Jensen Huang characterized demand for its Blackwell chip as “off the charts”. The stock staged a brief reflex rally but the price faded the next day to close in the red. Even as the market adopted a...
Mid-week market update: I am publishing the mid-week market update early for two reason. I wanted to respond to the recent market turmoil. And I have a dental appointment just after the market close so this will be in your inbox early. The markets have taken a sudden risk-off tone in the last few days....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
There has been increasing concern about the K-shaped economy. Fed Chair Powell specifically addressed this issue at the last post-FOMC press conference: To start with the layoffs, you’re right, you see a significant number of companies either announcing that they are not going to be doing much hiring, or actually doing layoffs, and much of...
Mid-week market update: My market analysis publication published on the weekend ended with the following: The S&P 500 ended an upper Bollinger Band ride last week and weakened to the 50 dma support level. Past pullbacks in the most recent bull trend have ended when the 5-day RSI became oversold. Next week’s market action...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
My former colleague Fred Meissner revealed a disturbing contrarian warning in a recent weekly commentary: “The most concerning story: recently I was on a panel for the CFA Society of San Francisco. All three analysts had the same outlook, which is my base case – a yearend rally followed by problems in the first part...
Mid-week market update: I noted on the weekend that the S&P 500 was at the end of a upper Bollinger Band ride, and such instances usually resolve in consolidation or pullbacks. In the past, the pullback usually ended at the 20 dma, which is roughly where the market is today. In other cases, market weakness continued...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I received considerable feedback to last week’s publication, Ready for the Contrarian Gold Trade? I suggested that while gold remains in a long-term bull market as the market is transitioning to a hard asset cycle, gold prices are due for a multi-month period of consolidation and pullback much like the 2004–2006 episode. Further discussions...
Mid-week market update: My former Merrill Lynch colleague Fred Meissner of The Fred Report wrote on the weekend that "the yearend rally has started, and a trend following indicator...we primarily use for risk management to show that trends have turned positive on key indexes". From a purely technical perspective, I agree. The S&P 500 has begun...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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