Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The Fed Chair acknowledged a high degree of uncertainty about the effects of tariffs: “Ultimately the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer. We know that’s coming, and we just want to see a little...
Mid-week market update: As expected, the Fed stayed on hold today and took a wait-and-see attitude on the timing of rate cuts. While economic data has softened recently, as evidenced by the decline in the U.S. Economic Surprise Index, the Fed is still waiting for clarity on the effects of tariffs on inflation to make monetary...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In the wake of the tame May CPI report, the Trump Administration publicly pressured the Fed to cut rates on social media. CNBC reported that Trump called Powell a “numbskull” and he “may have to force something” if Powell doesn’t act.
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