The Dollar tail wagging the market dog

Mid-week market update: Here at Humble Student of the Markets, we believe that investors can gain great insight through the use of inter-market, or cross asset market, analysis. During this period of heightened trade tensions and emerging market stress, it is the US Dollar that is driving risk appetite, and the direction of stock prices....

American confidence with Chinese characteristics?

Ed Yardeni recently highlighted the surge in small business confidence, earnings and employment plans as part of a scenario of what could go right.   Beneath the surface, there were a number of contradictions that were evocative of official Chinese economic statistics. A confidence bifurcation The first problem is how consumer and business confidence is...

The macro risks that keep me awake at night

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

On the verge of a “good overbought” rally, or market stall?

Mid-week market update: As the market broke out through the round number 2900 level, I am indebted to Urban Carmel and others for pointing out that the index is testing a key uptrend line.     There are a number of common elements of the current market conditions to past tests of the uptrend: By...