Asset return expectations under an alien invasion

Publication note:  There will be no mid-week update next week. The regular publication schedule will resume next weekend.     Is ET here? The holidays are a great time to decompress and think about big picture topics. This year, I focus on the limitations of modeling techniques for long-term asset returns and the risk of...

A simple decision vs. a decision process

I got some pushback from a reader to my weekend post (see How to spot the bear market bottom) about the FT Alphaville article indicating that former Secretary of Defense Mattis raised concerns about how the White House lacked a decision making process. The reader went on to defend Trump's decisions. I try very hard...

Pax Americana, or America First?

December is the season for investment advisors and portfolio managers to meet with their clients. Here are some thought on your an allocation framework as you prepare for those meetings. As a cautionary message, let's begin with a "buy and forget" portfolio featured in Fortune in 2000 and how they performed by 2012.    ...

Why you can’t believe Shiller on LT equity returns

Recently, Business Insider featured a chart of long-term equity returns based on data from Bob Shiller. The lesson was, the longer your time frame and the more patient you are, equities win. That`s been a lesson taught to generations. Based on this data, equities has become the foundation of any portfolio for anyone building a...

It’s a savings plan!

In the past several weeks, I have been seeing rising levels of angst in social media as the stock market tanked. While anxiety is certainly appropriate for traders, this kind of volatility shouldn't be a concern for investors as long as they have a plan. Learning to redefine your objectives Here is what I mean...