Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
This is the first in a series of the opportunities and threats to productivity. I begin the series with a focus on the productivity effects of AI adoption. There has been a lot of excitement over the productivity-enhancing promise of artificial intelligence. From a policy perspective, productivity is important as it defines the rate...
Mid-week market update: The combination of the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages (QCEW) weakness and a soft PPI report has moved the market to expect to at least a quarter-point rate cut at the FOMC meeting next week. There are even whispers that the Fed may even move by a half-point, though the odds is...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In the wake of the August Payroll Report, let’s review the Fed’s dilemma and the views of Fed Governor Chris Waller, one of the frontrunners to be the next Fed Chair. Is monetary policy restrictive? Yes, by a number of measures. The Cleveland Fed recently published a study that estimated r-star, or the neutral...
Mid-week market update: I rhetorically asked last weekend if a bond market tantrum could derail stock prices. I highlighted the weakness in the long Treasury bond ETF (TLT), which has failed to rally despite a recycle of the stochastic from oversold to neutral. TLT weakened on Monday as global bonds sold off, but it rebounded...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium is intended for participants to discuss the challenges they face and the long-term implications of different ways of thinking about monetary policy. Much like the ASSA conference held every January or the annual ECB conference in Sintra, it’s full of academics giving papers with Greek letters lying on their...
Mid-week market update: I was a little hesitant about jumping to instant conclusions about the upside breakout of several market indices in reaction to Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, and I wanted to wait for signs of confirmation. We have it now. The Dow and the equal-weighted S&P 500 staged upside breakouts, and they are holding...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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