This category can only be viewed by members. To view this category, sign up by purchasing Monthly subscription or Annual subscription (best value).

The darker meaning of the HIndenburg Omen

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Asset return expectations under an alien invasion

Publication note:  There will be no mid-week update next week. The regular publication schedule will resume next weekend.     Is ET here? The holidays are a great time to decompress and think about big picture topics. This year, I focus on the limitations of modeling techniques for long-term asset returns and the risk of...

A Hindenburg Omen in an oversold market

Mid-week market update: What happens when an ominously sounding Hindenburg Omen occurs when the market is oversold? David Keller described the three components of the Hindenburg Omen in an article: The market has to be in an established uptrend; Market breadth becomes highly bifurcated, as measured by the expansion of new highs and new lows;...

Could a hawkish rate cut rattle markets?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

The public embraces the Trump honeymoon

The latest University of Michigan sentiment survey is out, consumer sentiment surged in the wake of Trump’s victory.     A similar improvement in sentiment can be seen in the New York Fed’s consumer survey.     In the wake of Trump’s win, it was no surprise that the partisan lean in sentiment flipped. Republicans...

Here comes the end-of-year positioning season

Mid-week market update: We are entering the time of year when investors and traders position themselves for the end of the year. These conditions have made it more challenging for anyone trying to trade based on conventional technical analysis.   The most obvious is tax loss selling, when investors harvest losses to offset their (likely)...

Bitcoin 100K: Buy or fade the animal spirits?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Investing during an era of American Exceptionalism

As 2024 draws to a close, it is becoming clear that the U.S. equities have led the way for most of the year. The accompanying chart shows the relative returns of equities by major region against the MSCI All-C ountry World Index (ACWI). The U.S. has been the only safe-haven of growth as the economies...

Seasonal weakness ahead?

Mid-week market update: Jeffrey Hirsch of Almanac Trader recently indicated that the first part of December sees a period of seasonal weakness, followed by small cap leadership into year-end.     I regard seasonality as informing me about the climate, while the weather can vary day-to-day. Here is my assessment of the weather ahead.  ...

Stock market clues from the bond market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...