Now that the Magnificent Seven has definitively weakened and violated a key support level, the next question is whether the decline can be halted at the 200 dma. More ominously, the relative performance of these stocks is forming an inverted saucer top after violating a relative support level (bottom panel). It’s time to...
Mid-week market update: While the equal-weighted S&P 500 has been in a well-defined uptrend, which in intermediate-term bullish, other major U.S. equity averages have been mired in trading ranges, which reveal a degree of uncertainty about short-term direction. In addition, the VVIX, or the volatility of the VIX, remains above the 100 level indicating continued uncertainty....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
We should all have seen it coming. At the end of 2025, Time Magazine named its person of the year as “the architects of AI”. This was the classic example of the contrarian magazine cover indicator. As well, U.S. investors who watched the Super Bowl also saw a flood of AI-related TV commercials....
Mid-week market update: The delayed Jobs Report came in much higher than expectations this morning. The knee-jerk reaction in the pre-opening hours was risk-on, but the market reconsidered its view and pulled back after the open. Once again, the S&P 500 has failed to break out to the upside, though the equal-weighted S&P 500...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
By now, investors should know about the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade where Trump reverses on one of his initiatives based on the market’s reaction. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm recently introduced an additional political constraint on Trump’s actions. The Big MAC (Midterms Are Coming) factor has also forced some reversals. I...
Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the dreaded Hindenburg Omen has reared its ugly head again. In plain English, the Hindenburg Omen is signaled when a market with bifurcated breadth sees a rollover in price momentum. Single day signals tend not to be very useful, but clusters of signals may foreshadow future drawdowns. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I have been an advocate of holding a barbell position of U.S. large-cap growth and EAFE value stocks in equity allocations. More recently, the EAFE value portion has outperformed while the U.S. large-cap growth component has lagged. As a consequence, I am increasingly seeing questions of whether it’s time to rethink the allocation to U.S....
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