Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In the wake of Gulf War III, the odds of a U.S. recession in 2026 have spiked in the betting markets. Even though the implied recession probability has retreated, they are nevertheless elevated. Economic recessions are bull market killers. What are the chances of an oil shock-induced recession? Here are the bull and...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that the Trump Administration was on the verge of a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) pivot. The market had the hint of a TACO on March 9, when he told CBS: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”, but changed his tune hours later: “we’ve...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It is said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but rhymes, but investors need to be careful about what history they study. As I prepare for retirement at the end of March, I want to impress upon readers the importance of looking under the hood of past quantitative history studies in order to understand underlying...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded out a possible reversal yesterday (Tuesday) when it opened down, fell, and recovered to close higher on the day. The move was accompanied by a positive divergence on the 5-day RSI and on above average volume. These are all signs of selling exhaustion and a capitulation...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Citrini Research recently published a controversial report that rhetorically asked, “What if our AI bullishness continues to be right…and what if that’s actually bearish?” Even though the authors qualified the report as “a scenario, not a prediction”, it ignited much debate among investors. As the work is labeled as speculative fiction, I am not...
Mid-week market update: The major U.S. averages have been range bound for weeks. The only exception is the equal-weighted S&P 500, which has been in a steady uptrend but it has yet to break out through key resistance (dotted line). The market is coiling for a move. As investors wait for the NVIDIA earnings...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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