A Trend Model Status Report My Trend Asset Allocation Model has performed remarkably on an out-of-sample basis by beating the 60/40 benchmark almost every year since inception. It outperformed a 60/40 benchmark while exhibiting 60/40 like risk. The Trend Model applies trend-following principles to a variety of global equity markets and commodity prices...
This is my last strategy publication before my retirement at the end of March and I would like to conclude with some final words on the intermediate-term outlook for stocks. (I will be publishing a final technical analysis review tomorrow). Let’s begin with the good news. My long-term timing model is still bullish on...
Mid-week market update: The stock market's weakness last Friday moved the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator back to oversold and reset the count for a ZBT buy signal. Monday's strong recovery was day 1, and we've seen three consecutive days of strong breadth. Have the market gods decided to give me a ZBT buy signal as a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Why is the S&P 500 so resilient? Brent oil prices have breached the $100 level, but the index has only fallen about -7% on a peak-to-trough basis. The apparent divergence has led to a number of Street economists and strategists to call for a deeper pullback based on rising recession risk. From a top-down...
Mid-week market update: The words of the day seem to be patience and uncertainty. As the old Doris Day song goes, "Que Sera Sera". No one knows what will happen. I've been monitoring the progress of major averages. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 staged brief breakdowns of support, though the NASDAQ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In the wake of Gulf War III, the odds of a U.S. recession in 2026 have spiked in the betting markets. Even though the implied recession probability has retreated, they are nevertheless elevated. Economic recessions are bull market killers. What are the chances of an oil shock-induced recession? Here are the bull and...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that the Trump Administration was on the verge of a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) pivot. The market had the hint of a TACO on March 9, when he told CBS: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”, but changed his tune hours later: “we’ve...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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