Mid-week market update: One key development that I had been monitoring is the upside or downside resolution of the sideways consolidation that often occurs after the market ends an upper Bollinger Band ride. Investors may have a tentative answer. It’s an upside breakout. The S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500 finally staged an upside breakout...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The market is hiding a secret in plain sight. Ever since the “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff panic, trade war tensions have been in retreat, and the S&P 500 has regained all of its losses and achieved fresh all-time highs. This has happened against a backdrop of continuing uncertainty over tariff levels imposed by the U.S....
Mid-week market update: It’s remarkable how resilient the stock market has been in light of the challenges it’s facing. The S&P 500 ended an upper Bollinger Band ride last week and it’s been consolidating sideways. The newsflow has been mostly negative, and stock prices have been given lots of opportunity to retreat but the index remains...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I have been bullish on gold for several months (see 2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold). Since that report was published, gold prices have risen over 25% in USD. More recently, it violated its rising trend line in all major currencies except the Japanese yen, which may be a technical warning of a tiring bull. Is...
Mid-week market update: Investors have seen this movie before, which I described as a Trump collar. As the accompanying chart of the trade war factor, Trump shown a pain point at which the market anxiety, as measured by the VIX and MOVE Index, rises enough that he moderates his course on tariff belligerence. As market anxiety...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It’s official, my long-term market timing model has confirmed a buy signal at the end of June. It first flashed a sell signal in late January when the 14-month RSI of the NYSE Composite exhibited a negative divergence when the market made a new high, but RSI didn’t. Now it flashed a buy signal at...
Mid-week market update: I suggested on the weekend that the animal spirits were back. Indeed, the market may be undergoing a broadening in breadth and leadership. NASDAQ 100 stocks are coming off the boil, and med- and small-cap stocks are showing signs of life. That’s a welcome short-term sign that this rally may have more...
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