Mid-week market update: The decline in the S&P 500 seems to have been arrested at its 20 dma (blue line). The next question is which price gap gets filled first. A fill of the upside gap (in grey) would be positive for the bull case, while a fill of the downside gap (in pink) would...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
U.S. equity prices rose strongly in the wake of Trump’s victory. As the accompanying shows, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 surged on a relative basis, while other regions tanked. Donald Trump promised to Make America Great Again. While he may have accomplished that task in the short run for U.S. stocks,...
Mid-week market update: The latest BoA Global Manager Survey shows that institutions have stampeded into U.S. equities in the wake of Trump’s victory. The apparent crowded long position is concerning from a contrarian viewpoint. I had suggested on the weekend that it was time for the S&P 500 to pause and take a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Perhaps it is fitting that this report is being published just before November 11, Remembrance Day, the day commemorating the end of World War I. It was on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month the guns fell silent. Lest we forget the sacrifices of many and the terrible carnage...
Mid-week market update: I pointed out on the weekend (see A final update on the Trump Trade: Tail-risk assessment) that the term structure of the VIX had inverted, indicating high levels of market anxiety. The market was hedging for a catastrophic outcome that turned out to be nothing. Today’s post-election rally is mainly attributable to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
