Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It’s that time of year again to offer my readers the highest conviction idea for the coming year. Last year, my bullish call on gold worked out extremely well (see 2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold). Gold prices soared in all currencies and was one of the best-performing asset classes for the year. This...
Mid-week market update: Coming into the December FOMC decision, I was worried that the market might react negatively on the prospect of a hawkish rate cut. Ahead of the meeting, the Committee was highly divided and the potential for a divided decision was extremely high. As it turns out, the level of hawkishness had...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In 1995, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan made an unconventional bet that the U.S. was undergoing an era of faster productivity growth based on the adoption of technology. The decision enabled a significant shift in monetary policy that resulted in faster non-inflationary growth and increased prosperity. The adoption of easier monetary policy also fueled the Dot-Com...
Mid-week market update: I noticed on the weekend that there was a lot of excitement over the possibility of a Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal, probably because of the strong advance last week. The stock market consolidated this week, and while the ZBT window closes Friday, the degree of breadth strength to achieve a ZBT...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As Americans recover from their extended Thanksgiving feasts, they were faced with the news of skidding consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index weakened to levels just above the lows seen during the post-COVID expansion. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Confidence, which was released in early November, was even worse....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Is it all over for artificial intelligence-related plays? AI market leader NVIDIA reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results, and CEO Jensen Huang characterized demand for its Blackwell chip as “off the charts”. The stock staged a brief reflex rally but the price faded the next day to close in the red. Even as the market adopted a...
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