Mid-week market update: I reiterate my belief that while seasonality is informative of climate, it is not a forecast of the weather ahead. 2024 was a difficult year based on seasonal patterns, as depicted by Jeffrey Hirsch of Almanac Trader. Instead, the stock market was weak in the second half of December and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I have warned about excessive valuation before (see 2025 Outlook: Cautious But Not Bearish). The S&P 500 is trading at a forward P/E of 22, which is elevated by historical standards. On one hand, valuation isn’t highly predictive of returns over a one-year horizon. On the other hand, elevated P/E ratios lead to lower returns...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Publication note: There will be no mid-week update next week. The regular publication schedule will resume next weekend. Is ET here? The holidays are a great time to decompress and think about big picture topics. This year, I focus on the limitations of modeling techniques for long-term asset returns and the risk of...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
