A 2022 report card

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

What to expect when you’re expecting (a recession)

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

In praise of the bond market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Wall Street is fighting the Fed, should you join in?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear at the post-FOMC press conference. The Federal Reserve is nowhere close to ending its campaign of rate increases. While last two CPI reports show "a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases...It will take substantially more evidence to have confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path."...