The accompanying chart from Jeffrey Hirsch of Almanac Trader shows the expected seasonal price pattern for the S&P 500. As with any seasonality analysis, direction is more important than the magnitude of the move. If history is any guide, expect a volatile year until October, followed by a rally into year-end. I agree with...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It’s that time of year again to offer my readers the highest conviction idea for the coming year. Last year, my bullish call on gold worked out extremely well (see 2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold). Gold prices soared in all currencies and was one of the best-performing asset classes for the year. This...
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