Mid-week market update: Stock market price momentum has been strong, but I did warn about possible October surprises in an election year (see S&P 500 breakout or fake-out?). In particular, I highlighted the risks of a port strike and an Israeli incursion into Lebanon, both of which have become reality. Despite plenty of warnings,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
It has been over a week since the Fed’s decision to cut rates by a half-point, and that’s a decent interval to assess the market reaction. Investors should be aware of one crucial detail about market psychology. Even as the Fed offered a “commitment not to fall behind the curve” as a way of...
Mid-week market update: I continue to believe that the stock market is vulnerable to a setback. It's not just the negative RSI divergence, which is concerning, it's the inability for breadth to broaden out that's worrisome. As the accompanying chart shows, the equal-weighted S&P 500 to S&P 500 ratio stalled out at a relative resistance...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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