Now that the 2s10s yield curve has un-inverted, a review of sector leadership is showing bearish vibes. In particular, the relative performance of defensive sectors is turning up. I conducted an extensive sector and factor rotation review to determine the extent of the damage. Bearish vibes For the purposes of analyzing...
Mid-week market update: When I wrote on the weekend that the stock market was undergoing a prelude to a correction, I never dreamed that the S&P 500 would skid -2.1% on the first trading day in September to test its 50 dma. What happened? Unsatisfactory answers None of the conventional explanations...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mark Hulbert recently published an ominous warning at MarketWatch about excessive valuation in the U.S. equity market. Most valuation ratios are in the top 90% since 2000 and “as overvalued as it was at the market top on Jan. 3, 2022”. How worried should you be? Hulbert admitted in his article that...
Mid-week market update: Several readers asked me for comments going into NVIDIA's earnings report Wednesday night, so I thought I would publish my mid-week update a little earlier than usual. Bottom line, I have no idea about NVIDIA's fundamentals. You can study the chart pattern, but event-driven market moves are "roll the dice" moments....
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